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Survival Gone Fishin' -- Really

E-MAIL POST

I'm headed out on an early plane tomorrow to Victoria, British Columbia, for my sister's wedding. (She's getting hitched on the Fourth, funnily enough. No red, white and blue this year for this dual citizen.)

As much as I love you, I will be too busy to keep the blog fresh. I'll be tying chartreuse ribbons and making photo montages and generally serving as Slave -- er, Maid -- of Honor. (That's Honour, where we come from.)

So have fun and don't get too close to the firecrackers. Keep your eyes peeled for the next People at Work on July 7. And send me an e-mail with your thoughts on stories, what you're seeing in the market or things you hope I'll cover when I get back.

Meantime, I heard my dad's smoking salmon...

-- KELLY BENNETT

Friday, June 27 -- 5:42 pm

Survival in Wichita

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I heard from Bill Curtis, our "Lure of Wichita" reader whose frustrations with the local housing market have finally propelled him out of town.

He sent me an e-mail last night with some photos of his new house in Kansas:

I promised to send you a picture of our new house after I bought one here in Wichita.  So here it is.  It's so new it doesn't even have grass yet.

You won't believe the following stats, but it's true.

My new place is ...

newly built - 2008
5 bedroom / 3 bath
2900 sq. ft. including the main floor and basement
3 Car garage
whirlpool tub in master bath
walk in closet
located at the end of a cul-de-sac
18,000 sq. ft. lot
and there's a small lake behind the back yard.

All this for...

Wait for it...

$209K

Do I miss San Diego?  Not even a little bit.

OK, so maybe Curtis is bragging a little bit. How about you? Would you, have you, will you leave San Diego County to buy a house like this? Send me an e-mail.

I'm not sure how his moving out of state will affect the request he's made for more information about his mother-in-law's visa denial. Rep. Brian Bilbray's office is still waiting to hear more detail about the denial. I'll keep you posted as I figure it out.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Friday, June 27 -- 2:51 pm

Gin Changes His Tune

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A sentence was notably missing from Alan Gin's economic index today. That was the sentence where Gin usually says he still thinks the region will avoid a recession.

This is a big deal. Gin's index is one of the widest-watched measures of the local economy. In a couple of speeches and panels earlier this year, Gin found his no-recession position at odds with the gloomier forecasts of some of his economist peers.

But the index today, for May, was decidedly grim. May was also the eighth straight month where the index declined "significantly," and the 25th month of the past 26 where there were declines at all, according to Gin.

In Gin's words:

Employment growth for 2008 as a whole through May is now just barely positive with a gain of only 400 jobs compared to the same period in 2007. Barring a huge surge in jobs in June, employment growth for 2008 as a whole will probably turn negative when the next employment report is released. How long the job losses continue and how deep they will be is uncertain at this point.

That's the point in the index where Gin usually has the "but..." and then a statement of how the San Diego region would avoid recession.

But after such a bleak outlook, that nuance was missing today.

Here were Gin's words from a chat I had with him in February:

"At the national level a recession is a decline in the economy either measured by GDP dropping for a couple of quarters, or massive job losses," he said. "I don't think we'll see either here in San Diego."

For one thing, he said, it's tough to get data on the gross regional product -- what would be the San Diego-equivalent to the GDP, because its data only comes out once a year. Still, Gin says he doesn't think year-over-year drops in that measure are in store. Instead, he's projected growth, albeit very slow growth -- maybe 5,000 to 8,000 jobs this year.

I caught Gin on the phone a few minutes ago to ask if he's changed his tune.

It's true, he said: San Diego has now seen those year-over-year drops that Gin wasn't expecting. He said he'll be watching June numbers very carefully, but for now it looks like all told, the numbers for January to June job growth will prove lower than the numbers for the same six months in 2007.

Those six months of negative job growth compared to the same six months the year before is a locally-adjusted definition of recession, he said.

He said the numbers have deteriorated much more rapidly than he expected in the sectors tied to real estate, including the retail jobs in furniture and home decor sales.

"It looks like in the first half of 2008, the falloff in job growth is just much more rapid than before."

-- KELLY BENNETT

Thursday, June 26 -- 6:33 pm

More Arrests in Alleged Cash Back Scheme

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I just heard from Darrell Foxworth, spokesman for the San Diego division of the FBI, that law enforcement has arrested two of the fugitive defendants from the alleged mortgage fraud ring announced Thursday.

Defendant Angel Armendariz turned himself in at the FBI offices on Aero Drive this morning. And FBI officers arrested defendant Rafael Santiago in Los Angeles this afternoon, Foxworth said.

Officials are still looking for Lucette Montaine, the last of the six individuals named in the federal complaint released last week.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Tuesday, June 24 -- 5:20 pm

Home Prices Revert to 2003 Levels

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House prices in San Diego County have fallen to a point last seen in late 2003, according to the most recent Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index released this morning.

Today's reading of the index, dated April 2008, was 180.57. That means prices are still about 81 percent higher than they were in January 2000, when the index was centered at 100.

Prices have fallen 28 percent from the peak of 250.34 in November 2005. And they've fallen 22 percent from the same time last year.

April's reading matches a point last seen around October and November 2003.

Broken into thirds, the index showed drops along the following lines:

Lowest tier (Homes priced lower than $379,636): Prices fell 30.9 percent year-over-year and 36.1 percent from this tier's peak in June 2006.

Middle tier (Homes priced between $379,636 and $566,964): Prices fell 23.3 percent compared to April 2007 and 29.7 percent from this tier's peak in November 2005.

Highest tier (More than $566,964): Prices fell 15 percent year-over-year and 19.2 percent from this tier's peak in June 2006.

The index measures price changes on the same houses over the years. It doesn't track condos or new homes.

We're working on a full story with these numbers, so check back for more later. One quick observation is that the drops on the high end are growing -- last month's index showed lesser drops both year-over-year and from the peak.

As always, if you have thoughts or questions or just want to say hi, send me an e-mail.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Tuesday, June 24 -- 11:53 am

A Big Fish

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Grandma! I caught a fish and it was thiiiiiiiis big!

A couple of months ago, I kept the blogging sparse in Survival and told you I was gone fishin' -- burrowed into a story that was consuming my energy and covering my desk with photos and papers.

If you'll let Survival serve as my refrigerator for a moment, Grandma's getting out the magnets and hanging this story, a profile of a guy named George Gorton. It ran this morning with a second part to come tomorrow, and it's the story I've been working on for a few months with my incredible colleague Andrew Donohue.

Self-horn-tooting over.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Monday, June 23 -- 2:18 pm

Six Charged in Alleged Mortgage Fraud Ring

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Six individuals were charged in an alleged mortgage fraud scheme with potential losses to mortgage lenders of $5.1 million, the U.S. Attorney's Office announced this afternoon.

The alleged scheme involved 21 properties sold between 2005 and 2006, with at least five in San Diego County and at least three of them condo units in downtown San Diego. The group, operating under the name Creative Financial Solutions Inc., allegedly obtained mortgages for unqualified or unknowing borrowers.

The alleged scheme fits the profile of a common variety of mortgage fraud against lending institutions in San Diego County, often called "cash back at closing." Under the alleged scheme, one of the defendants would contact a listing agent for a property, and offer to buy it for an amount higher than the property's asking price.

The listing agent would raise the asking price and a fraudulently inflated appraisal for the new amount. The lender would approve a loan for the new amount, and the buyer would purchase the house, using a mortgage for 100 percent of the home price or close to it.

The sellers would get their full asking price, and the difference between the original asking price and the new amount would be split in cash between some of the defendants, who acted as agents or loan officers for the purchase. Plus, the defendants allegedly netted commissions on the sales, too.

After the home has been abandoned and foreclosed on, the bank is left with a repossessed property that was never worth the amount the bank had lent.

Of the 21 loans analyzed by the FBI as examples of the alleged scheme, 18 loans have been foreclosed or are in the foreclosure process, according to court documents.

The U.S. attorney alleges that the individuals:

Submitted false purchase contracts to conceal the true purchase price of the homes

Submitted false loan applications

Intentionally concealed the fair market value of the home

Used misleading appraisals

Submitted false bank statements and income documentation.

Defendants Abner Betech, Said Betech and Aviva Betech, San Diego residents, were arraigned on felony charges of wire fraud and aiding and abetting on Tuesday. Three named individuals -- Rafael Santiago of Riverside, and Angel Armendariz and Lucette Montane of Chula Vista -- have not yet been arrested. The defendants range in age from 25 to 39.

The case arose from an FBI nationwide investigation dubbed "Operation Malicious Mortgage," with additional investigation by the IRS.

Check back for more on this story later.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Thursday, June 19 -- 4:26 pm

Neighborhood Market: City Heights

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I asked for your votes and I heard loud support from several readers for a look at City Heights in our next installment of "The Neighborhood Market" series.

One of the most compelling reasons for making City Heights our next neighborhood was sent by reader FW:

Considering that the largest price movements both up and now down have been in the lower income areas, I think they deserve your attention.

FW was, of course, referencing the lowest tier in the Case-Shiller home price index. A large portion of the homes for sale in City Heights fit in that lowest tier, where home prices appreciated by the most percentage-wise in the boom and have fallen by the most since the peak in June 2006.

So I'd love to hear your questions, your thoughts on City Heights real estate, or what you've noticed if you live or work nearby. Send me an e-mail if you have anything to share or any questions you think I should be sure to ask.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Tuesday, June 17 -- 5:42 pm

Discounts Define Market

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About 12 percent fewer homes sold in the county in May than sold in the same month in 2007, DataQuick reported this morning.

Still, May's sales total was the highest for any recent month since August 2007. The homes that did sell -- 2,979 of them -- logged the lowest median price the county has seen since September 2003.

DataQuick attributed the trend of increased sales juxtaposed with a deeper price plunge across the Southern California region to bargain shoppers and "sluggish high-end sales, more sellers dropping their asking prices and lenders selling off more of their aggressively priced, repossessed homes," in a press release.

Agents hunting for a silver lining were touting last month's sales bump as evidence the market was turning around.

Chris Thornberg, housing economist, disputed the notion of a quick turnaround in my story on the Case-Shiller index last month:

"Home markets do not bounce, they splat," Thornberg said. "We're not dropping a rubber ball here, we're dropping a watermelon."

-- KELLY BENNETT

Monday, June 16 -- 4:46 pm

Foreclosure Filings Mount in May

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A total of 6,201 foreclosure-related notices went to county households in May, marking a 17 percent increase from the month before and an 84 percent increase compared to May 2007, RealtyTrac reported this morning.

The records are filed when a house reaches a new stage of foreclosure -- notice of default, notice of auction and bank repossession.

One record was filed for every 182 households in the county.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Friday, June 13 -- 3:38 pm

Outreach Confusion

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I've been hearing this morning from a few people looking for phone numbers and help for folks they know who've been affected by this alleged real estate scam. I wrote about some of the victims in my story today.

The short answer is to call 619.531.4475. That's the hotline that has been set up in a partnership between the district attorney, the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals and the Housing Opportunities Collaborative, the nonprofit group of housing counselors that we've written about for their foreclosure clinics.

The group overseeing the hotline is in the middle of contacting people who've already called in. And they've now sent a letter in English and Spanish to the victims they haven't received calls from, said Mike Groch, economic crimes division chief for the district attorney. The group will hold a workshop for those victims this weekend.

"We're doing our best to get those folks steered in the right direction," Groch said.

The challenge with outreach is that for victims like Emy Palacios in my story today, their addresses now belong to the bank or to another homeowner. And, whenever you get multiple agencies involved in something like this, the confusion is bound to increase.

On Thursday, I told you about the English/Spanish problem that had arisen in the Attorney General's Office's outreach to potential victims of the alleged foreclosure rescue scam announced three weeks ago.

Angela Rosenau, deputy attorney general, told me Thursday her office had decided to send its letters to victims not just in English but in Spanish too, since a large number of the victims they'd identified spoke only Spanish.

But a number of victims had yet to receive the mailing from the attorney general as of Monday. I heard that from a mortgage broker in Vista who's been doing her own outreach to victims and has talked to more than a dozen.

I called Rosenau yesterday afternoon to see what happened.

Rosenau said her office had decided to hand over the responsibility for victim outreach to the DA's office, via its hotline. She said that will help avoid confusion for homeowners and will allow her office to concentrate its efforts on reaching potential victims in other counties.

"We decided not to continue to pursue it (San Diego mailers) in the short term," she said.

But she underscored the desperation that some homeowners feel right now, having been caught up in the alleged scam. She said those homeowners should call the DA's hotline.

"Unfortunately, short term is all some of these people have," she said.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Friday, June 13 -- 2:27 pm

Charting the Neighborhood Market Course

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I asked for suggestions for my next installment in our "The Neighborhood Market" series, and you answered.

Here are the suggestions I heard over the weekend for our next attempt to stop in on a market, hear from the real estate pros and home buyers and sellers on the streets there, and through all of these stories, assemble a mosaic of the San Diego housing scene.

Downtown

City Heights

Southeast San Diego

San Ysidro

South Park

North Park

Bay Park

Kensington

Escondido

Feel free to shoot me a note with your vote for one of the neighborhoods listed above, or a suggestion for another one.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Monday, June 9 -- 12:51 pm

Where Should I Go Next?

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It's been a while since we've stopped in for a look at a local neighborhood's real estate market. We launched "The Neighborhood Market" series at the end of February with a piece on Carmel Valley, and followed it up in March with a look at PB and Mission Beach.

We know it's tricky to tell the story of the housing market on a county level. We know the data often appears vague when it includes stats from Chula Vista and Carmel Valley and Oceanside and Descanso. And so, like in the above stories, we're hoping to stop in on some markets, hear from the real estate pros and home buyers and sellers on the streets there, and through it all assemble a mosaic of the San Diego housing scene.

Now I'm planning the next installment, and I'm looking for your ideas. Where should I go next? Send me an e-mail with your thoughts.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Friday, June 6 -- 12:44 pm

Struggling to Find Victims

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After law enforcement officials identified at least 400 local victims of what they've called a foreclosure-rescue scam, they began efforts to contact those victims.

The district attorney (bringing criminal charges) relied on the media to circulate a hotline number, while the attorney general (with a civil suit) mailed a letter, a press release and a form for homeowners to claim their losses. They found the addresses easily, because any homes that had been deeded over showed up in county public records as now owned by one of the LLCs named in the announcement of the alleged scam.

Officials said a large number of the potential victims of the alleged scam speak only Spanish. But those initial packets were written nearly entirely in English, with a single sentence in Spanish at the bottom of the letter advising non-English speakers to call a phone number.

I called the Attorney General's Office Tuesday to ask about the language issue, after hearing a complaint from a North County real estate broker.

That broker was concerned that homeowners who didn't understand the mailer and didn't hear the news might still think their homes will be saved from foreclosure by the defendants' company, Federal Land Grant Co., or one of the affiliated LLCs named in last month's announcement. That broker was translating the letter herself, and buying pizza for her two daughters -- also agents -- to enlist their help to stuff envelopes, hand-address them and mail them out to the victims they could find addresses for.

This afternoon, I talked to Angela Rosenau, deputy attorney general, who said the office has now sent out a Spanish-language version of the mailer and the press release.

"After your phone call, that really bothered me, so we have been making an effort to do that," she said.

The district attorney's hotline for victims has received about 200 calls, representing only about half of the estimated pool.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Thursday, June 5 -- 5:58 pm

'Is It All Too Good to Be True?'

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Last night, Fox6 reporter John Mattes (of considerable renown after he was attacked a couple of years ago, camera rolling, while investigating an alleged real estate scam) did a piece on that buy one, get one free deal on houses in North County.

He introduced the story, got a company-sponsored tour of one of the mansions, then chatted with Brian Yui of HouseRebate.com to find out if the buzzed-about promotion really was a good deal. You can watch the clip here, and I've transcribed part of it below:

JM: But hold on. Is it all too good to be true?

So just like any combo fast-food deal where you get the free fries but you question the deal, you need to question this deal, too.

BY: I think it's a great marketing ploy by the developer. ...

There's a comparable house right down the street, the same model, which pretty much is selling for $300,000 less.

JM: That's right. $1.29 million, built by the same builder. So Brian says, unless you want a second row house on a busy street, be smart. Just demand a mega-discount on that mega-mansion.

BY: Everything's negotiable in this marketplace.

Here's the listing he's talking about: 2543 Royal View Road with views of the San Pasqual Valley. The company hasn't updated that page since it apparently lowered the asking price from $1.43-$1.475 million.

Now the house, a "Heston V" floor plan, four-bedroom, four-bathroom, six-car garage, house is listed at $1.295 million.

The houses in the two-for-one deal are in the same Michael Crews housing development, Royal View, and two of them are the exact same floor plan, "Heston V," as the one listed for $1.3 million on the resale market. But the new ones are $1.6 million.

I called Adam Rossman, the developer representative selling the resale house, to ask about the $300,000 difference.

Rossman saw the clip last night and thought the story missed the point, that one house is new and one house has been lived in.

"One's a resale and one doesn't come with a free house," he said as a defense of the price difference.

But, I asked him, by selling the new house for $300,000 more than the resale one, doesn't it appear the developer is just adding the cost of the row home to the mansion?

Rossman claimed by buying one of the new houses, a buyer would come out $100,000 ahead, since the company has valued the "free" row houses at $400,000. That would make the mansion price effectively $1.2 million, $100,000 less than his resale listing.

On his listing: "It's 1 million 3 and that's it, end of story," he said. "I know on the Fox story last night they made that reference, but it's not a good reference. There's no free house included with this one. They're separate issues. Two separate things."

But consumers in this market aren't very sympathetic to sellers justifying their higher prices. A lower price attracts, especially when the floor plan on the resale house is the same as the new one.

I just called Gary London, a local real estate analyst, to ask what is a reasonable amount for a builder to charge for a "new house premium." He said there's no formula, but the builder has to see things from the buyer's point of view -- not hide behind a technical distinction between old and new to justify a price difference.

"The answer is, you've got to think in terms of the consumer," London said.

What do you think? As always, feel free to send me an e-mail.

Thanks to reader CL for the heads-up on the piece.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Thursday, June 5 -- 4:44 pm

Visa Denied Again

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I heard last night from Bill Curtis, our Survival reader whose request was denied again for a visitor's visa for his mother-in-law to come help his wife with her pregnancy.

Here's Curtis's frustrated note:

You wanted an update so here it is. Our fricken US embassy has denied my wife's mother's visa for the SECOND TIME! Yeah, we paid the fees, did everything legally, even had the Congressman's assistants letter, and yet they STILL won't let her mother come and help my wife after 3 miscarriages. We are the evil empire now. It's official, the USA is a chancre on the face of the Earth.

Kelly, do me a favor. Can you see if you know any illegal immigrant advocates? I want to give our story to them so they can use it to encourage more Mexicans to come here illegally. That's the only way after all, the LEGAL way sure as hell doesn't work.

Let's get this story out there to the national media. "USA denies grandmother's visa to help pregnant daughter after 3 miscarriages." And there was the US govt. making Myanmar look so evil for denying visas to aid workers. Yeah, the USA has NO moral high ground to stand on.

This is a doozy.

I've put in a call to Rep. Brian Bilbray's office, whose staff has been helping Curtis with his application. I'll let you know what I hear back.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Thursday, June 5 -- 10:58 am

Banner's Down

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My colleague David Washburn just told me he passed that National City condo buildingon his way in to our office.

The banner is gone, Washburn reports, in his debut contribution to Survival in San Diego.

You might remember the earful Ron Morrison, National City mayor, gave us about his frustration with the signs, which he called "stupid" and said they'd caused the city "nothing but heartache," with their advertised starting bids of $59,000.

I just caught Morrison on the phone, who confirmed the sign came down yesterday.

I asked him if he pulled the sign down himself.

"I told them I might have to," he said, laughing. "I told them I have a razor knife and I know how to use it."

-- KELLY BENNETT

Wednesday, June 4 -- 4:18 pm

Buy One Get One Free: Houses

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Remember this story, when Michael Crews, a developer in North County, was offering would-be homebuyers a sales bargain borrowed from the playbook of car dealers? Last June, we told you about his program to trade in your old house for one of his new row homes in Escondido.

Now, the tactics are getting more spectacular. The company is offering a buy one, get one free program. You buy one of Michael Crews' houses in the San Pasqual Valley, starting at $1.6 million. And then you get a free row home in Escondido, worth $400,000.

This is not a paid ad. It's an illustration for this post.

I'm admittedly late to this story -- 10News first reported it a couple of weeks ago. But the story has shown up all over the place as news outlets and blogs pick up what seems to be a dramatic sign of the times, where developers fight to convince buyers that it's a good time to buy and try to get their projects sold.

Here's what the company told 10News:

"We thought, 'Why does it just have to be on Pop Tarts and restaurants? Why not buy one home, get one free,'" said Dawn Berry of Michael Crews Development. ...

Adam Rossman of Michael Crews Development added, "People have been coming in saying, 'How can you do this?' Well, it's our way of dealing with current market conditions to move some inventory."

-- KELLY BENNETT

Date: 6/3/08

'The Weakest Point in a Weakening Market'

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In my Thursday post about the condo project in National City that had 32 units auctioned two weeks ago, I quoted from a story I wrote in 2006:

Real estate advisor Gary London said National City Boulevard is going to "redevelop with gusto" and the project will be right in the heart of that.

Plus, "sometimes price is the ultimate amenity," he said of the project.

London wrote me today to ask if I'd give him the chance to disagree with his 2006 self. Here's how that went:

[Bayview] Tower targeted an moderate income consumer, a very different focus than the several other projects proposed for the National City Blvd. corridor, all of which were taking the opportunity of redevelopment to re-face National City. At the lowest anticipated price points relative to all of the proposed projects, and as a conversion, [Bayview] was most exposed to the real estate cycle change. In the end, they were the only project able to deliver, but it was the weakest project in a weakening market.

Essentially, National City (and Chula Vista) missed its 'window of opportunity'. Projects which were in the entitlement/pre-construction stages were taking an exceptionally lengthy time to come on line. I do not expect this market to recover in the foreseeable future to the point where new projects will be feasible, and certainly not until the central San Diego urban markets have stabilized and recovered. Think six to ten years.

What do you think? Send me an e-mail.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Date: 6/2/08

'Nothing but Heartache'

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I heard back from Mayor Ron Morrison in National City today with his reaction to the eye-catching banner hanging from BayView Tower in that city, advertising condos for auction bids starting from $59,000. Here's a post chock full of links to our previous coverage of the project.

Morrison didn't mince words. The auction's over and the city has demanded the company take down the advertisements.

"They're causing us nothing but heartache," he said, "'cause there are people who are saying, 'Gee, you can't give condos away in National City.' Those stupid signs."

Morrison pointed out the catch with auctions put on by REDC, the company that hosted this one on May 17. The "starting bid" advertised is usually a lot lower than what the company will actually let the unit sell for. There's a hidden reserve price that has to be met before the sale is made.

And in the meantime, the sign still hanging there makes it seem like condo prices in the city are scraping new lows, he said.

"We're demanding they take those signs down," he said. "It's nothing but a marketing ploy that has nothing to do with the market, by a company that does this around the United States."

Now that this particular auction's passed, Morrison said, the sign should come down.

"We're not in the business of advertising for that company," he said.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Monday, June 2 -- 2:03 pm